Lanpro analysis on government figures show that at current rates, only half of the 300,000 homes needed yearly to achieve the 1.5 million new homes target will be delivered
The flagship policy of the current Labour government is undeniably the target of delivering 1.5 million new homes by 2029, but concerns have long been raised about actually achieving it in the face of persistent skills shortages, planning hurdles and international tensions impacting the supply chain.
Now, analysis by Lanpro has reported that delivery is 10% down on the ten-year average, and well below the 300,000 per year widely accepted as the minimum needed to reach Labour’s pledge.
At current rates, only half of the 1.5 million new homes target is set to be met
The latest estimates from the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) indicate that around 196,500 dwellings were added to England’s housing stock in 2024–25, an average of 16,375 homes a month.
By contrast, the previous decade averaged 222,746 homes a year: 18,562 per month.
If delivery continues at today’s rate, Lanpro calculates that the country will be around 860,000 homes short by the end of 2029 – missing the headline 1.5 million target by about 46%.
Regional imbalances in delivering the 1.5 million new homes
The South East and London, where housing need is most acute, are also the furthest from meeting targets – achieving just 47% and 35% of their estimated requirements in 2024–25. By contrast, parts of the East Midlands (79%) and North East (77%) are closer to keeping pace.
At local authority level, the contrast is even sharper. North West England is sailing ahead, with Preston adding homes at 232% of assessed need in 2023–24, with Ribble Valley (186%) and Salford (196%) also exceeding targets. Yet many high-demand southern councils delivered less than 20% of the homes they require – with Kensington and Chelsea at just 5% and Bromley at 8%.
This mismatch reveals that the regions and boroughs with the greatest affordability crisis are least likely to meet targets.
Labour has introduced reforms aimed at unlocking land and investment – including the introduction of the ‘grey belt‘, setting mandatory housing targets and launching a National Housing Bank to channel capital into new development. But planning bottlenecks, infrastructure constraints and market uncertainty remain.
“Record breaking numbers of homes will need to be built in a short space of time”
Commenting on the research, Faraz Baber, chief operating officer at Lanpro, said: “During the Labour Party Conference we heard the mantra ‘build baby build’ numerous times. Yet our analysis shows that to pick up the necessary speed to meet the target, record breaking numbers of homes will need to be built in a short space of time. Based on the current housing delivery trajectory, if we do not see a significant uptick with immediate effect, we could see the target missed by almost half.
“This will require a holistic, cross departmental collaborative approach, led by both No.10 and the Treasury, working with local authorities and government agencies. It will require a significant number of these homes need to be built directly by the Government and its associated agencies and will require alignment with transport and energy planning.
“Failing this, it’s not clear how the target will be met.”
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