A digital modelling system using a form of ‘gambling’ is being utilised to organise maintenance for the Thames Barrier
The Thames flood prediction tool was developed in 2021-2022 by the Environment Agency and professor Ivan Haigh of the University of Southampton.
The tool is now in use by the Thames Estuary 2100 Plan.
The tool predicts the number of closures in a year
The model determines the future annual closure numbers for the Thames Barrier.
The Thames Barrier and wider Estuary flood defences protect more than 1.4m people and £321bn in residential property throughout London from flooding from the River Thames.
An important aspect, however, is that the barrier can only be closed up to an average of 50 times per year to ensure there is adequate time for maintenance. That is where the Thames flood prediction tool comes in, predicting when the barrier will need to be closed.
The tool uses a Monte-Carlo approach, meaning repeated random sampling is used to calculate the probability of different outcomes using random variables and better projecting possible results influenced by uncertainty.
This allows the minimum, maximum, and average projections to be calculated and maintenance teams to be prepared for most outcomes in the face of sea level rise, tidal cycles, and storm surges.
“Surge barriers are closing increasingly often”
In 2024, professor Ivan Haigh said: “Around the world there are more than 50 storm surge barriers in operation protecting tens of millions of people and trillions of pounds of property and infrastructure. However, with climate change, surge barriers are closing increasingly often, and closures are now occurring in months when they typically have not occurred in the past. Increased use of surge barriers in the future has critical implications for barrier management, maintenance and operation.
“Working closely with staff in the Environment Agency, we have produced a flexible tool that can estimate how much more often and which times of the year operators are likely to have to use their barriers. Working with the Environment Agency, and other barrier operators in the Netherlands and USA, we have considered the implications of this on future barrier management and maintenance, and identified when in the future barriers might have to be upgraded and replaced.”
Dr James Brand added in 2025: “This tool has provided us with vital new evidence to inform our strategic planning for managing London’s tidal flood risk. It helps us to test different scenarios for managing the flood defence system and allows us to make better informed decisions when setting deadlines for implementing improvements to the tidal flood defence system.”
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