Glenigan’s Summer 2026 Construction Forecast indicates sector resurgence in 2027, despite a painful start to the year
Glenigan’s Summer 2026 Forecast is published against the backdrop of a series of domestic and international events that have shaken global markets to their foundations and rocked the entire UK business and industrial landscape.
Construction was already one of the hardest-hit sectors before this instability. However, the impact is expected to be short-lived.
Glenigan’s latest numbers predict that, whilst the year will end with negative growth of -1%, this will be offset by an 11% increase in activity in 2027 and 4% in 2028 (+13% on 2025). This is dependent upon a gradual re-strengthening of the UK economy which, although fragile, appears to be withstanding considerable external pressures.
Getting ready for renewed growth: Key findings of Glenigan’s Summer Construction Forecast
Looking at the highlights from the forecast, despite remaining issues, key drivers of growth over the next two years include increased consumer spending, higher public sector investment, and an expansion of infrastructure and utilities work.
Glenigan’s economics director, Allan Wilen, explained: “As Glenigan’s Summer Construction Forecast shows, there are some particularly exciting growth areas as government funding is released and investor appetite starts to return to the market.
“Contractors will need to be quick off the mark as more favourable conditions finally set in. There will be no time for hanging around, and the quicker the sector’s reaction, the sooner momentum will return and stick.”
Industrial and commercial office projects set to boost activity
In the private sector, financial viability and economic uncertainty remain key constraints on project progress in the near term.
However, there are likely to be some big winners in the non-residential verticals over the next few years. Industrial and commercial office projects are set to significantly boost private-sector activity, with project starts strengthening as UK economic growth gathers pace, supported by increased business investment.
Although the former will see a 9% downturn this year, improving market conditions and firm demand for logistics space, backed by the Government’s National Planning Policy and Infrastructure Strategy, will help deliver increases of 16% in 2027 and 5% in 2028.
Positive outcomes for health and education projects
Education is destined for a renewal, climbing 8% by the end of the year and by 20% in 2027, followed by a further 5% rise in 2028. School construction continues to dominate activity, as a clearer funding pipeline unlocks investment to rebuild and renovate a large swathe of tired and crumbling stock.
Health’s diagnosis is also positive, with recovery predicted by year-end (+9%), at the same level in 2027 (+9%), and then increasing exponentially in 2028 (+14%).
Civils will surge before flattening out
Civils is likely to remain flat by the end of the year (0%), no surprise given the significant decline in activity in the vertical over the past 18 months. A 15% surge is predicted in 2027 before flattening out in 2028 (0%).
Transport infrastructure also gets a look in, strengthening from next year, supported by Spending Review funding for road maintenance and rail upgrades, including HS2 and the TransPennine Route.
Private housebuilding set to rise by 13% in 2027
Housebuilding experienced a disappointing start to 2026 after a lacklustre second half of 2025. Whilst the immediate outlook is unavoidably subdued, both are set for a solid revival in the remainder of the Forecast period.
Private housebuilding is expected to rebound by 13% in 2027 and by 5% in 2028, driven by lower borrowing costs and improved consumer confidence.
Furthermore, supply-side conditions should ease as regulatory bottlenecks loosen, and planning reforms increase site availability.
Retail, hotel and leisure will fluctuate
Although retail is forecast to nudge up 1% by the end of 2026, sector growth will remain subdued until 2027, when growth is expected to accelerate to 10%, followed by a 4% decline in 2028.
The forecast period is more volatile for hotel & leisure, with 2026 ending 12% down, then rising 11% in 2027 before dipping 1% in 2028.
Squeezed between global and domestic challenges, the war in Iran has placed considerable strain on global tourism; domestically, travel has been hit by rising fuel prices and cost-of-living pressures.
Wilen concluded: “It’s been a turbulent few months for the UK construction sector, with investors and developers reassessing and rescheduling planned projects. However, the economic outlook is expected to improve once the current fog of war dissipates, supporting a strengthening of construction activity from 2027, with an uplift across almost all private and public sector verticals.”
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