According to new research from Currie & Brown, oil price volatility will continue to push up construction costs in markets around the world
Despite the US and Iran reaching an agreement to end the conflict, uncertainty remains over where oil prices will settle and how markets will respond in the months ahead, meaning construction costs won’t settle for a while.
For the construction industry, the implications extend far beyond fuel costs. Energy prices influence the manufacture and transportation of key materials, including steel, copper and aluminium, as well as supplier pricing, procurement strategies and project delivery.
Alan Manuel, group chief executive officer at Currie & Brown, explained: “Construction projects don’t stop every time markets become volatile. Investment decisions still need to be made, contracts still need to be signed, and programmes still need to move forward.
“Disruption is becoming a more regular feature of the operating environment. Whether it is geopolitics, inflation, trade policy or supply chain disruption, market conditions frequently change quickly and often with little warning.”
Fluctuations mean construction costs will be uneven across the globe
Drawing on historical market data, commodity trends and project cost intelligence, the research models a range of potential outcomes under different oil price scenarios.
The analysis shows that the effects are unlikely to be felt evenly. Some markets, sectors and supply chains are more sensitive than others.
Under higher oil price scenarios, for example, data centre construction costs in India could increase by up to 13%, compared with up to 4.2% in Singapore. Hotel projects show a similar pattern, with forecast cost increases of up to 12% in India, while construction costs in Singapore are expected to rise by up to 3.7%.
Leaders must decide where is best to invest
These differences are not just financial – they influence the choices organisations need to make. In data centres, where speed to market remains critical, developers may need to revisit procurement, lead times and programme certainty.
In hospitality, owners and investors may need to decide where to invest to best protect long-term asset value, guest experience, and operational performance.
The research explores these sector-specific considerations in dedicated perspectives on data centre and hotel construction.
Responding to changes without losing momentum
The US-Iran agreement may have reduced immediate pressure on energy markets, but it is unlikely to be the last unexpected event to affect construction this year or next.
The challenge for construction leaders is not preparing for a specific event. It is creating projects, programmes and strategies with real flexibility that can respond to change without losing momentum.
Manuel concluded: “The organisations best placed to succeed are not those trying to predict every disruption. They are the ones taking the time to understand the risks and build flexibility into their plans and delivery models from the outset.”
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